September / 2026 Baltics Next Month Newsletter

Intensive Opening of the Geopolitical Season

Here is what the opening of the 2026/2027 political season has to offer for journalists interested in geopolitics. The season starts with Latvia’s main foreign policy and security event, the Riga Conference on the 10–11th of September. From September 13th to 14th, Baltic leadership and security experts will take part in the European Arctic Summit addressing the Arctic region’s geopolitical significance in Finland’s Rovaniemi. On September 15th, the Nordic-Baltic Energy Conference focusing on energy security will take place in Riga. On September 16th, the University of Latvia will host a discussion on power politics organised by Cambridge University’s Centre for Geopolitics. Next, Tallinn will take over, with Estonia’s Defence Week taking place on September 21–25th. The week will consist of multiple conferences, such as the Annual Baltic Conference on Defence, NATO Open Innovation Conference & Expo and multiple side events. September has undoubtedly become 2026’s peak month for Baltic foreign affairs and security conferences.

1990s Restrictions Don’t Work

Lithuania’s Constitutional ban on weapons of mass destruction and foreign military bases is about to change. Amending Article 137 requires a two-thirds majority—over two successive votes which are held three months apart—and it is already on the Parliament’s agenda. The ruling coalition argues that Lithuania’s constitutional restriction is not just idiosyncratic, but actively interferes with NATO defence plans. Thereby, its removal is seen as a matter concerning the very future of the independent nation—it cannot be left subject to a referendum. In turn, scrapping the Article will likely move forward quickly, even though the fate of the second part of the clause on foreign military bases has triggered some discussion. To address these apprehensions, the Parliament is hosting a science conference on the legal status of the recently inaugurated Bundeswehr Panzer Brigade 45 on the 18th of September.

Delayed Election Results

Latvia planned to make its 3rd of October parliamentary election almost entirely digital. Yet, digitisation hasn’t been without setbacks. Although voters will still cast paper ballots, other election elements, such as candidate registration and voter identity verification, are fully digitised. The advantages, for instance, are that citizens may conveniently vote at any polling station. However, in March 2026, the European Public Prosecutor’s Office (EPPO) dismantled a group made up of 20 individuals, including officials, who colluded to determine the winners of the public procurement for at least six ICT projects worth up to €1.5 million; financed by the European Regional Development Fund. As some of these projects were assessed to impact elections, the EPPO advised taking added precautions in securing election integrity. In consequence, the Parliament has decided to amend the Electoral Law—as the OSCE ODIHR Needs Assessment Mission Report stipulates—imposing a fully manual counting procedure in the upcoming elections. Therefore, results will reach us later than usual.

Does the Chosen Delivery Timeframe (of the Long-Range Defence Weapons) Reveal Anything?

Estonia’s Government is making decisive financial choices. The budget talks commencing on the 1st of September will address: the 2027 budget, the Health Insurance Fund’s four-year budget strategy, and the allocation of EU support until 2034. However, the most scrutinised item on the agenda is the purchase of long-range air-defence weapons systems. The country has just received its first surface-launched medium-range air-defence battery and has another two on the way. The next envisioned upgrade for the air defence imperative is a long-range defence layer. Although this investment holds the prospect of securing airports and command centres from ballistic attacks—it does come with costs. The package is not only pricey, around €1 billion, it also boasts a hefty delivery time of up to nine years. The Government is set to produce the budget draft laws and decide on the defence investment for the coming decade by the end of September.

Scrambling for Cost-efficient Defence

Throughout the year, the Baltic States have witnessed around 20 drone incursions and are all working on their defences. Latvia, however, is the first one on the NATO Eastern Flank to materialise the concept of a Drone Wall. During the Ankara Summit in July 2026, NATO upgraded its Baltic Air Policing mission, now permitting jets to shoot down drones—yet scrambling them is cost-ineffective. With this in mind, Latvia’s Ministry of Defence has come forward with a promise to deploy an automated counter-drone defence system: radars, command posts, and interceptors throughout its entire eastern border—450 kilometres—by the end of September. The date can seem unrealistic, but there is no doubt that Latvia is striving to make Europe’s defence cost-efficient. On the 6–7th of September, Rēzekne, a small town on the border with Russia, hosts the Dual-Use Export Forum, which addresses the alignment of military and peacetime industries—unmanned systems are among the event’s priority topics.

Arthouse Biopic of a Legendary Basketballer

In September–October, Baltic cinemas will start screening Ulya—it’s not at all clear how local audiences will receive it. Viesturs Kairišs’ biopic of the Latvian basketball legend Uļjana Semjonova drew a prolonged ovation in the “Un Certain Regard” competition at Cannes in May 2026. Yet for the film’s local acclaim, audiences will have to warm up to the authors’ decisions to shoot in black-and-white and write a bilingual script—meaning characters use both Latvian and Russian. Furthermore, the legendary 2.13-meter-tall sportswoman is played by a male actor, Kārlis Arnolds Avots, who is also a co-author of the project’s idea and script. The international Latvian, Estonian, Polish, and Lithuanian crew have certainly made brave choices, and they definitely deserve the praise they already received at multiple festivals. Whether or not Baltic cinemagoers—both spoiled by blockbusters and conservative attitudes—will approve of these choices is less certain. Sadly, Semjonova died in January 2026 before the film was released.

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