February / 2026 Baltics Next Month Newsletter

From Rotational Deterrence to Embedded Defence

In February, the Lithuania-based NATO Multinational Battle Group will integrate into Germany’s Bundeswehr 45th Panzer Brigade. Since NATO has deployed a 1200-strong multinational Enhanced Forward Presence force in the Baltics, 18 shifts of German, Belgian, Czech, Croatian, French, Luxembourgian, Dutch, Norwegian, and Icelandic troops/personnel have rotated through Lithuania. Germans have always made up the bulk, with at times more than half of the total deployment. Although the Multinational Battlegroup began its operation under Lithuania’s Iron Wolf Brigade, from February onwards, the 45th Panzer Brigade will take over its leadership. Meanwhile, two more foundational changes are underway: 1.) NATO deployment transitions from rotational deterrence to embedded structural defence; 2.) the number of people is expected to grow to 5000 before the end of 2027. The formal ceremony will take place in Kaunas’ Santaka Park on the 4th of February.

Three Perfect Strangers Coming to Baltic Screens

The most reproduced film in cinema history, welcomes three new editions, all shot together in Vilnius last summer. It is the first ever film shot in three Baltic languages—simultaneously. It’s a remake of the Italian black comedy Perfetti sconosciuti, featuring a group of friends playing a dinner game in which they dare each other to disclose their private conversations to everyone at the table. Producers took up the cross-border challenge because it made sense financially—with the film audience growing to eight million viewers. Nowadays, multilingual productions typically seek to reach the widest possible global audiences. Three separate casts of language speakers from such small linguistic communities seems unexpected, but the results certainly outperform voiceover translations. The film already premiered in Estonia, it comes to Latvia on the 13th of February, while Lithuania’s cinemas will begin screening in September.

Integrating two Regional Alliances under Duress

Estonia just began its year-long double chairmanship of the Nordic-Baltic Eight (NB8) and Baltic Cooperation (B3)—its public servants intend to make the most of it. To begin with, the country’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has declared that initial B3 goals have been achieved, and the group’s path from now on is to further integration with the Nordics. This, though, doesn’t mean that B3 will terminate. On the contrary, Estonia strives to make it more efficient, so the two cooperation frameworks would better complement each other. Remarkably, just in February, Tallinn will host two meet-ups of the Baltic Assembly, where Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania’s Parliamentarians will focus on different topics: Economics on the 5th-6th, and the Environment on the 26th-27th, and an NB8 Conference of Ministers responsible for Communication, also involving Poland on the 20th. From there, high-level Nordic-Baltic meetings will be happening almost every month.

Trial Over First Major Baltic Seabed Incident

On the 11th of February, a Hong Kong court will hear the plea of Captain Wenguo Wan, charged with damaging the Baltic seabed infrastructure. Wan commanded the container ship NewNew Polar Bear that damaged the Balticconnector gas pipeline and cables in the Gulf of Finland in October 2023. Initially investigated by Finland and Estonia as an act of sabotage, the incident was ignored by the Chinese, who did not respond to their joint legal assistance request for almost a year. However, in 2024, during his visit to China, Finland’s President Alexander Stubb raised the pending case with his counterpart Xi Jinping, and a few months later, the country admitted its ship was involved. In May 2025, Hong Kong authorities arrested the captain, claiming he violated maritime safety protocols. If convicted, Wan could face up to two years in prison.

Who is Eager to Learn Latvian?

It has been over three years since Latvia asked its non-citizen Russian-speakers to pass the basic A2 language exam in order to extend their residence permits. In October 2025, authorities announced that around 500 people must fulfil these requirements or face deportation. The efforts have surely amplified the Kremlin’s disinformation campaigns on the Baltic states’ suppression of Russian speakers—one strong example being the story debunked by local media of the ‘forcibly deported Vasily Moskalenov’, a 98-year-old WWII veteran. Have Latvia’s efforts to force-integrate its Russian-speakers actually brought some positive results? At the beginning of 2026, Riga’s municipality announced a new package of free of charge Latvian courses, and the ones starting in February were filled in one day. Who is attending? Find out by visiting the State Education Development Agency’s Open Day event on the 9th February, intended for those planning to take the national language exams.

Resolving Cross-border Extortion

In November 2025, following continuous provocations, Lithuania closed its border with Belarus. Despite exemptions allowing the freight trucks to return to their countries of registration, Belarus didn’t let the Lithuanian ones out. While borders were opened in a few weeks, Belarus is still holding the trucks hostage and charging Lithuanian freight businesses for their parking—in essence, extorting money. Officially, Minsk keeps insisting on negotiations at the highest level, but in practice, this only means stalling communications. Furthermore, Belarus threatens to confiscate the trucks at the beginning of March 2026. Lithuania, however, refuses to be blackmailed. Meanwhile, the EU’s 20th sanction package against Russia (including Belarus) is to be announced before the anniversary of Russia’s second invasion of Ukraine at the end of February. Alongside the extension of sanctions on fertilisers so important to Belarus, it will also possibly include new penalties for taking the EU’s property hostage—prompting Minsk to release the trucks or at least rethink its approach.

EU Enlargement Debate Moves to Estonia

The Baltic States’ support for Ukraine’s accession to the EU is unwavering. Usually, the most eager one to hasten the negotiations is Lithuania, with at least two of its ministers last month pressing the international community for full membership by 2030. But in February, Estonia will take over the role. On the 13th, experts on why Ukraine’s accession is so important for the Baltic States will be travelling to Tallinn’s EU Enlargement Conference, organised by Estonia’s International Centre for Defence and Security. Both key personalities: Marta Kos, European Commissioner for Enlargement, and Taras Kachka, Ukraine’s Deputy Prime Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic integration, will also be there. If the Baltic Sea Region has become the new power fulcrum, as some of the most attentive region’s correspondents have noted, and Estonia is in charge of NB8, the most significant cooperation framework in the area, could Ukraine’s accession path be decided upon in Tallinn? Well, to experience this possibly historic event firsthand, head to the conference.

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Cover image: Felix Winkelnkemper / Wikimedia Commons

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The Newsletter Baltics Next Month is produced by human beings at fixers.press. The descriptions of the selected events and the contacts offered represent a subjective view of the developments lay any claims to be the only perspective. If you wish to report a mistake, or for any further inquiries, please contact us at team@fixers.press.